The United States is preparing for a ground war with Iran. Donald Trump, meanwhile, says the conflict is nearly over.
“We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” Trump said in his Easter message – even as the war he is overseeing expands across the region.
The gap between rhetoric and reality is widening – and there is little evidence that anyone around him is willing to correct it.
In my column last week, I argued that the war had already failed to go to plan for either the US or Israel. That now looks increasingly understated.
Regime change in Iran has failed despite mass assassinations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains intact. Iran continues to launch missiles across the region and has moved to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, with potentially global economic consequences. Even in Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to face sustained resistance from Hezbollah.
Iran’s conventional forces have been damaged, but the core of its power remains intact.
More importantly, the past week points to a far more dangerous phase: the quiet normalisation of a US ground offensive.
While Trump’s messaging remains erratic, the Pentagon under Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is assembling a formidable military presence in the region, with military reporting pointing to “substantial preparations for ground operations”. These include the arrival of the USS Tripoli with its embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.
Further reinforcements are expected, including another Marine unit and elements of the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division. In practice, the distinction between air war and ground war is already eroding. The AH-64 Apache is operating across southern Iran and in Iraq, while the A-10 Thunderbolt II is focused on operations in the Strait of Hormuz against fast attack craft. This is further evidence that the war is already expanding across the region.
Major ground operations will require a wide range of air support. At the most powerful level these will include strategic operations focused on B-52 Stratofortress, B-1B Lancer and B-2 Spirit aircraft. The first two are already operating out of RAF Fairford, with more than 20 bombers deployed and flying missions against Iran.
The B-2 continues to operate from the US mainland, though both RAF Fairford on UK soil and Diego Garcia, a British territory, are equipped to support it – making the UK’s involvement clear, whatever Keir Starmer’s government may claim publicly.
Naval power is also being reinforced. Two US carrier strike groups are already positioned in the eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Sea, each carrying around 80 aircraft. A third, led by the USS George H W Bush, has now departed the US and is heading towards the region.
Until recently, it did seem possible that Trump’s inner circle would recognise the utter mess he was in – even if he would not. Indeed, there was still a path to de-escalation – a face-saving declaration of victory, followed by withdrawal. That path now appears to have closed.
What has changed is the continued resilience of the IRGC, now in its second month of a conflict it has been preparing for decades, combined with the momentum and the profitability of the US war machine being assembled.
Trump’s promise to bring Iran to the “stone ages” may have been intended as a threat, but the implication is that Trump’s United States is already there.
